The New York Yankees “Plan A” is to sign Juan Soto to a long-term contract and watch him cement his Hall of Fame credentials playing right field at Yankee Stadium.
Developing “Plan A” is the easy part, getting his name on the dotted line will be hard. Let’s not forget that Soto, like Aaron Judge before him, bet on himself. In July 2022, it was reported that Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million dollar contract to stay with the Washington Nationals, his original team, the team he won a World Series with. Since then, in his journeys to San Diego and the Bronx, Soto has continued to produce on the field and stay true to the Scott Boras playbook off the field.
Nothing Soto has said or done, and nothing in super-agent Boras’ past, suggests that there will be any discount given to the Yankees or any other suitor. Now, he may not take every “last” dollar, as it might make sense to take slightly less for a better situation, but he is going to be paid market value. And that value is certainly going to surpass what he turned down in 2022 ($440m) and the true worth of Shohei Ohtani’s deferred ladened contract signed last winter ($460m according to the Michigan University Journal of Economics).
In the immediate aftermath of losing the World Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Soto said to Fox Sports, “I feel like every team has the same opportunities when I go to free agency. I don’t want to say anyone has an advantage, because at the end of the day we’re gonna look at what they have and how much they want me”. Yep, he’s not only a seasoned vet in the batter’s box, but his negotiating skills are beyond his years.
Last winter, the Yankees went against their grain by going “all-in” and trading 5 players for a pending free agent. It turned out to be the right move as Soto was a game changer for the Yankees in every way imaginable. He produced great numbers, his at-bats were “must-see” TV, his focus and intensity were contagious, he connected with fans, was respected by his teammates, said the right things to the media, bonded with Aaron Judge, and helped lead the Yankees to 94 wins and their first trip to the World Series in 15 years.
Our guess is that when the Yankees made the trade, they knew that it would probably take between $550-600m to keep Soto long-term. All signs point to that not being enough. There are too few players at Soto’s level period, let alone as a 26-year-old free agent. There are too many teams interested, too many owners with deep pockets, and one very motivated owner across town.
Our prediction is that this is going to get very uncomfortable for Hal Steinbrenner, Randy Levine and Brian Cashman. They will spend a lot of time looking at the alternatives, but at the end of the day, we think he’s stays with the Yankees on a record 14-year, $700m contract.
IF that’s too rich for the Yankees blood, then they’ll have to move on to a very disappointing “Plan B”.
