THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGING
For those of you who want the New York Rangers to break up their core, and are complaining that they have not made enough moves heading into free agency, I present to you the Rangers 2023-24 President’s Trophy Winning Playoff Roster:
Panarin-Trocheck-Lafreniere
Kreider–Zibanejad–Roslovic
Cuylle–Wennberg–Kakko
Vesey–Goodrow–Rempe
Brodzinski–Chytil–Wheeler
Miller–Trouba
Lindgren–Fox
Gustafsson–Schneider
Jones–Ruhwedel
Shesterkin-Quick
Since the conclusion of the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals, when the Rangers lost in 6 games to the eventual (2x) Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers, GM Chris Drury has jettisoned (waived, traded, not qualified or let walk in free agency) 8 of their 15 forwards and 5 of their 8 defensemen.
They only have 10 skaters (including RFAs Will Cuylle and K’Andre Miller), and 2 goalies left.
As Bob Dylan so eloquently put it in 1964, and Timothy Chalamet reiterated in 2024, no matter what the Rangers do in free agency, “The Times They Are A-Changing”.
CURRENT 23-MAN PROJECTED ROSTER
I took the Alain Vigneault approach to line building, and created strong duos, in this case C/LW on three lines, rather than putting the six best forwards on the top two lines.
Panarin-Miller-Othmann
Cuylle-Zibanejad-Perreault
Lafreniere-Trocheck-Berard
Edstrom-Carrick-Rempe
Parssinen-Brodzinski
Miller– Fox
Soucy-Borgen
Vaakanainen-Schneider
Robertson
Shesterkin-Quick
Now, Mike Sullivan could follow in Peter Laviolette’s footsteps and use these lines:
Panarin-Trocheck-Lafreniere
Cuylle-Miller-Zibanejad
In that scenario, the Rangers would need to hope that either Juuso Parssinen is ready to realize his potential, or Johnny Brodzinski, at the age of 32, is ready to win a full-time job in his 11th professional season. The only other option would be to sign a third line center in free agency such as centers Christian Dvorak or Luke Kunin. However, as you are about to see, the Rangers do not have the funds to do that without trading out more veteran salaries.
RANGERS SALARY CAP SITUATION
Based on the projected roster above, with both Cuylle and Miller unsigned, the Rangers would have $12,197,142 in cap space. Let’s examine how much it would cost to keep both RFAs in the fold.
WILL CUYLLE VS MATTHEW KNIES
The salary cap is $95.5m in 2025-26 and projected to be $104m in 2026-27. Based on that, the average salary in the NHL over the next two seasons for a 23-man roster will be $4.35m.
Will Cuylle and Matthew Knies are already above-average players, and Knies just signed a six-year extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs for $46.5m with an average annual value (AAV) of $7.75m. Let’s compare the two young power forwards:
| CUYLLE | KNIES |
Position: | LW/RW | RW/LW |
Shoots: | Left | Left |
Birth Year: | 2002 | 2002 |
HT/WT: | 6’3, 212 | 6’4”, 237 |
Draft Position: | 60th Overall | 57th Overall |
Games Played: | 167 | 161 |
Goals: | 33 | 44 |
Assists: | 33 | 50 |
Points: | 66 | 94 |
Hits: | 556 | 353 |
PIM: | 108 | 90 |
Based on Knies better production, albeit often playing with Austin Mathews and Mitch Marner, while Cuylle has primarily been a third-line staple, I project that the Rangers can get Cuylle signed for six years at an $6.5m (AAV). Ironically, the same amount that Chris Kreider was being paid before his depressing departure.
This would leave the Rangers with $5,697,142. Considering most teams want to be at least $1m under the cap going into the season, let’s say the Rangers have $4.5m left to sign Miller or acquire another top pair left-handed defenseman.
K’ANDRE MILLER VS VLADISLAV GAVRIKOV
I fundamentally agree with the Rangers that Miller has not displayed enough consistency to reward him with a long-term contract. On the other hand, if he was willing to come back for two years at $4.5m AAV, I would welcome him back and pair him with Adam Fox.
Meanwhile Vladislav Gavrikov, 29, is rumored to be the Rangers top free agent target. He’s a big (6’3”, 220), left-handed shot, stay-at-home defenseman. While I am unfortunately getting Wade Redden vibes, there are many observers who believe that his success these last two seasons with the Los Angeles Kings are more of a sign of things to come, rather than a salary drive.
The problem is, after Monday’s last-minute signings, he is the top D on the market:
- Ivan Provorov, 28, signed a 7-year, $8.5m AAV with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
- Aaron Ekblad, 29, signed an 8-year, $6.1m AAV, with the Florida Panthers (giving them a special “Stanley-Cup, No-State Taxes” discount).
Unless Gavrikov is itching to play with fellow Russians’ Artemi Panarin and Igor Shesterkin, he’s going to command a 7-year deal at between $7.5-$9m per year. In order for that to work, the Rangers would have to clear out another $3.5-5m in addition to shipping out Miller for draft picks and prospects.
WHAT SHOULD THE RANGERS DO?
Due to the Rangers aggressive “go for it” mantra, Drury has been a “buy high”, “sell low” General Manager. I don’t say that to be flippant, and there are exceptions like the JT Miller trade where Drury got Vancouver to take on concussion-prone Filip Chytil’s contract. However, in general, that has been the case.
Therefore, I fully expect the Rangers to sign Gavrikov and then have to sell off a couple of depressed assets, as teams will know the Rangers need to move salary to be cap compliant.
What would I do? I’d take no chances with my young, aggressive, north-south, power forward and immediately sign Cuylle to a 6 year, $6.5m (AAV) deal. It’s not sexy to make your primary signing on July 1st your own RFA, but in this case, it’s smart.
Next, I’d call Miller and give him one last chance to sign for 2 years, $4.5m (AAV). If he wants to shop for an offer sheet, I’d let him, while I would explore the trade and free agent market.
Now, there is one other left-handed defenseman I would consider signing. But there’s little chance the Rangers would bring him back.
BLOWING IN THE WIND
Ryan Lindgren went from being a beloved member of the Rangers, a winner of the Steven McDonald Extra Effort Award, to a castaway in a brief period of time. The Rangers shipped him to the Colorado Avalanche in March where played top 4 minutes for one of the Western Conference’s best teams.
Still only 27, he is currently the 3rd ranked defensemen, and 10th ranked free agent available on – “TSN’s Free Agency Frenzy UFA List”. Our expectation is that his next contract would fit neatly under the Ranger’s salary cap at roughly 3 years, $4m AAV.
Do I expect a reunion? No, I do not. I brought it up because whether you are a Lindgren supporter like me, or one of the vocal fans on social media that effectively ran him out of town – he’s the 10th highest ranked free agent this year.
If that doesn’t temper your expectations for what’s going to happen today, nothing will.
ICYMI “Can You Draft Better Than the Rangers’ Front Office?”
