Welcome to “Mac’s Picks for Week 7.”
Miami Dolphins (0-5) at New York Jets (2-4)
Sunday 1p CBS
No doubt the New York Jets are a more competitive football team in 2026. They’ve won two games, and three of their four losses were one-possession games. They finished last season with a league-worst –203-point differential. Through six games this year, they are only -10. That’s significant progress. Now, in order to give their fans hope for the future and secure Aaron Glenn’s job, they need to get better at situational football.
As reported last week on CBS, the Jets have been outscored 100-6 in the final two minutes of the first half during Glenn’s 23-game tenure. That’s a statistic so outlandish that I need to source it multiple times to believe it (here and here). Gang Green needs to improve in other areas too — red zone efficiency and the kick return game — but the end of the first half would be a good place to start this Sunday at MetLife Stadium.
While the Jet fanbase has been circling this week’s game as a win since the schedule came out, the Miami Dolphins’ fans probably think this is their best chance to get off the schneid. Jeff Hafley’s team is still playing hard, as evidenced by their recent close losses to the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals. But the Jets are the more talented team, and, I believe, hungry to secure Glenn’s first divisional win.
New York Jets 27 Miami Dolphins 13
Mac’s Pick — Jets (-4.5)
New York Giants (3-2-1) at Houston Texans (2-4)
Sunday 1p FOX
I’m not sure what is harder to believe: that CJ Stroud is already in his fourth NFL season or that he is still only 25 years old. Despite the Houston Texans starting the season 0-4 before rebounding with back-to-back wins, Stroud is statistically having his best season. He’s completing a career-best 65.3% of his passes and has a 9-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. In last week’s victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, he had an off-the-charts 95.6 QBR.
When you combine Stroud’s recent form with the New York Giants’ uncertainty at QB and RB, it’s no wonder that Vegas has established the Texans as double-digit favorites. When I first saw the line, I was leaning toward taking Big Blue based on my belief in their head coach. But then I did some research to find out what happened the last time John Harbaugh faced DeMeco Ryans with a third-string QB at the helm.
On October 5, 2025, Stroud threw four TDs to help the Texans defeat Cooper Rush and the Baltimore Ravens 44-10. Past results, especially with different franchises, do not guarantee future results, but it’s enough for me to bet against JJ McCarthy.
Houston Texans 31 New York Giants 17
Mac’s Pick — Texans (-10.5)
MAC’S PICKS SEASON RECORD
Versus the point spread: 7-5
On the moneyline: 8-3-1
MAC’S PICKS DISCLAIMER
Mac’s Picks is written for entertainment purposes only. While “Mac” comes from gambling lineage, he knows he can’t actually predict the future. Therefore, use this information at your own risk.
ICYMI “4 Things Knicks: The NBA Title Defense Starts Tonight”